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Northeast Weather Blog |
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Last Updated: 2010 Február 20 10:27 PM (GMT időzóna)
— Last Comment: 2010 Március 16 05:23 PM (GMT időzóna)
Deep, stacked low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will slowly give way to a new low advancing towards the Northeast via the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This new low will spread snow across the interior and rain for the coast as far north as southern New England Monday through Wednesday.
Current watches, warnings and advisories.  Fig.1 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA. ------- Forecast Discussion Synopsis - Issued - 2/20/10 @ 5:20pm A stationary area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to spread clouds across the Northeastern US with snow showers for the North Country through the remainder of the weekend. As we begin next week a complex area of low pressure will approach from the south, spreading snow across the northern half of the region, with rain or mixed precip south. As this system reaches the Eastern Seaboard a secondary area of low pressure will form off the Delmarva peninsula then move north along the coast Tuesday and Wednesday spreading precip into New England. Meanwhile, a strong cut-off low will dive into the Ohio Valley, possibly initiating the development of new low pressure along the coast for Thursday and Friday that could spread another round of heavy precip cross the Northeast with snow likely for the interior and rain a good possibility for the coast. Short-term - Issued - 2/20/10 @ 5:20pm The deep cut-off low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes has been with us now for quite some time, thanks to blocking high pressure situated over the Davis Strait. Just like the last several days, the Northeast region will remain mostly cloudy over the interior with partly sunny skies along the coastal plain as downsloping wind dry out the cloud field. A few snow showers are scattered about across the higher terrain of northern New York and New England, as well as off the Great Lakes, but these have died down in coverage and intensity since earlier in the week and shouldn't amount to any accumulations. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 40's along the coastal plain with 30's common across the interior. Over the higher terrain of the North Country temperatures this afternoon will hold in the 20's. Winds will be out of the west and northwest at 5-15 mph with higher gusts, especially across the north. With the clouds hanging around tonight and winds still kicking up temperatures will only drop 5-8 degrees tonight as the low diurnal variation temperature pattern continues. Lows will generally fall into the 20's across the interior with 30's for the coastal plain. It will be more of the same Sunday and Sunday night but the pesky stacked low will start to shear out and loosen its grip over the Northeast. Hence there should be a bit more sunshine tomorrow and perhaps a degree or two warmer as well. Mid-term - Issued - 2/20/10 @ 5:20pm The first challenge of the forecast comes to open the new work week as low pressure forms over the Mid-Mississippi Valley region and heads northeast towards the lower Great Lakes. This is a low pressure track we got quite used to during the winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09 with the La Nina pattern we were in. However, unlike the previous two winters, blocking over the higher latitudes has acted to keep these systems suppressed and this forecaster sees no reason why this trend of suppression shouldn't continue. As the low advances towards the upper Ohio Valley isentropic lift will increase along and ahead of the warm front trying to push into the region. This will cause precipitation to break out during the day on Monday across western Pennsylvania which will slowly spread north and east as the day progresses. Also, unlike most storms this year, there will be a transition zone across the Northeast to contend with, making for a more complicated forecast. As precipitation begins expect it to do so as snow across a good portion of Pennsylvania, mainly north of I-70. Those areas south of I-70 should see a mixture of snow, sleet and rain eventually changing to rain as temperatures both aloft and at the surface climb above freezing. Precip amount s during the day on Monday will be on the light side, a tenth of an inch or two at most. This should lead to an inch or two of snowfall by day's end. Further north and east across much of New York and New England the region will lie between systems and most should escape with a fine day to begin the week. Partly sunny skies and temperatures running several degrees above the norm with no real arctic air to speak of, just a maritime polar airmass. Here temperatures will rise into the 30's across the interior with 40's along the coast. Back west where precipitation is commencing temperatures will generally remain in the 30's. A secondary area of low pressure will form at the triple point located over the Delmarva peninsula Monday night and slowly work up the coast as the primary low heads towards the Niagara Frontier. Snow will overspread much of the interior sections of Pennsylvania, New York and western New England while areas closer to the coast will see a mixture of precipitation types trending more toward rain along the immediate coast. A warm nose aloft will be present due to the circulation around the primary low but as the coastal low takes over the northward extent of the warm air aloft will be cut-off and eventually be drawn back south as the coastal becomes the dominant low. which should occur by daybreak. Once again, precipitation amounts will be on the light side as lift becomes diffuse with the transfer of energy from the primary low to the coastal. Expect QPF to average tenth of an inch or two which will lead to only an additional inch or two of snow. In all nothing more than nuisance snow until daybreak Tuesday. High pressure nosing down from northern Quebec will keep much of northern and eastern New England dry with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures are expected to fall into the teens and 20's across northern New England with 20's and 30's across the remainder of the Northeast; warmest along the southern coastal plain. As the secondary low takes over on Tuesday and easterly flow increases off the Atlantic precipitation will increase in coverage and intensity. The trough axis extending between the coastal and the primary areas of low pressure will serve as a conduit for the moisture streaming in from the ocean. Intense low-level convergence will drive moderate to heavy snowfall from northeast Pennsylvania into central and eastern New York and western New England. Model QPF's Tuesday and Tuesday night have been in the three quarters of an inch to an inch and a half range. These amounts will lead to well over 6" of snow across the interior. Along the coast /I-95 corridor/SE Pennsylvania up to southern New England most, if not all, of this precipitation will be in liquid form. In locations still struggling with massive piles of snow leftover from the blizzards earlier this month flooding will start to become a concern. As the low continues north on Wednesday it will start to shear out as it runs into confluence over the Canadian Maritimes. Snow will overspread much of northern New England with rain continuing along the southern New England coast. The deformation axis of snowfall will extend back into northern New York as well with wrap around moisture bringing snow showers across the lakes region and down into western Pennsylvania. Long-term - Issued - 2/20/10 @ 5:20pm Second challenge in the forecast comes by Wednesday afternoon as a significant shortwave rotates around the deep cut-off low pressure over the Ohio Valley and reaches the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Several medium range models are indicating cyclogenesis to occur as this disturbance reaches the coast with another area of precipitation blossoming to the north of this development Wednesday night into Thursday. This secondary development should affect areas a bit further east and the first system with New England looking to be the target. Colder air will also be in place following the passage of the first low and snow should be the predominate precipitation type. Eventually the whole mess will merge under the upper level cut-off and become stationary over the Northeast through the end of the forecast period. This will keep snow showers in the forecast for all areas with the higher terrain and lake effect snow belts expected to receive the most in the way of accumulations. Temperatures will be seasonable with little diurnal variation due to the persistent clouds and precipitation. ___________________________________________________________ Radar: Northeast Region Loop Fig.3 - Radar loop of the Northeast region. Courtesy of Weather Underground. ___________________________________________________________ Local SST's  Fig.4 - Sea-surface temperatures off the Northeast Coast. Courtesy of NOAA. ___________________________________________________________ All hits. Unique hits.  My weather dragon!
Yet another nor'easter is taking aim at the I-95 corridor of the Northeast to start next week. Six to twelve inches of snowfall is possible with lighter amounts further inland. Cold with lake-effect snow follows.Current watches, warnings and advisories.Fig.1 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.-------Forecast DiscussionSynopsis - Issued - 2/13/10 @ 4:05pmFairly tranquil weather will continue this weekend...
A moisture-laden southern stream low pressure will move towards the Northeast late this weekend spreading rain, ice and snow across the region, possibly in significant amounts across the interior. Current watches, warnings and advisories.Fig.1 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.-------Forecast DiscussionSynopsis - Issued - 1/15/10 @ 4:00pmSplit flow regime will dominate the US for the upcom...
Severe winter weather continues to make headlines but why has winter turned so harsh this year? Most in the US will see a break in one form or another this week but a weekend storm might bring another large snowfall from the Ohio Valley, northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.Current watches, warnings and advisories.Fig.1 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.--------The highly anomalous high-latitude blockin...
A gathering storm over the Western Atlantic will back towards the Gulf of Maine this weekend spreading heavy snow and strong winds into central/northern New England with high tides and coastal flooding along the shore. Near-blizzard conditions are possible for a time during the height of the storm.Current watches, warnings and advisories.Fig.1 - Current watches, warning and advisories issued by the National Weather Service. Courtesy of NOAA.--------Forecast Discussi...
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